Leger Survey: Understanding the Construction Industry to Tackle the Project of the Century
News
The construction market is evolving rapidly and remains marked by uncertainty. To help businesses and decision-makers make informed choices, Pomerleau publishes its Economic Radar: a tool that analyzes trends, anticipates challenges, and identifies opportunities. It’s designed for industry professionals and public and private decision-makers who want to build on solid foundations.
Two Priorities for Success: Agility and Predictability
The third quarter of 2025 confirms that the sector must adapt quickly: new budget directions, major construction projects, and stricter material sourcing rules are reshaping the industry.
Our experts, Sean Boyer (Vice President of Preconstruction – Building) and Jean-François Perras (Lead of Economic and Statistical Expertise – Building), emphasize that success relies on two pillars:
- Agility: the ability to respond quickly to changes.
- Predictability: anticipating impacts to plan effectively.
In practice, this means adjusting processes rapidly, strengthening internal coordination, and anticipating logistical constraints before they become obstacles.
Key Trends to Watch
1. Federal Investments: Opportunities Ahead
The government is investing in infrastructure, defense, and residential projects. These initiatives create opportunities but also challenges: careful planning is needed to avoid delays and control costs. Notably, construction GDP grew by 1.40% in Q3, outpacing overall industry growth (0.52%), driven by stable residential activity and strong engineering work.
2. Tariffs, Quotas, and Local Sourcing
Rules are changing: starting in November, federal projects must use Canadian steel and lumber. At the same time, counter-tariffs of 25% to 50% on certain metals (steel and aluminum) from the U.S. and China are complicating supply chains. The takeaway: adapt purchasing practices quickly and work closely with local suppliers.
3. Major Projects Office: A Strategic Role
This office is now central to anticipating risks, securing supplies, and maximizing opportunities under new regulations. Even as global supply chains return to pre-2020 levels, vigilance is essential to avoid disruptions.
4. Building Permits: A Downward Trend
For two consecutive quarters, permit values have declined: -6.32% compared to the previous quarter and -11.03% versus 2024. The industrial sector is hardest hit (-18.19%), while commercial projects show slight growth (+2.55%). This trend could slow investments, especially in non-residential construction.
5. Regional Price Differences: Significant Gaps
Price gaps are widening: Québec shows a +7.50% increase, Montréal +5.15%, compared to a national average of +4.20%. Costs are rising particularly for steel structures and plumbing, while HVAC systems are declining. These differences require close monitoring of local markets to adjust budgets.
Coordination and Anticipation: Keys to Success
These new trends complicate supply chains and impose logistical constraints. According to our experts, Sean Boyer et Jean-François Perras, anticipating these impacts is crucial. Stronger coordination between teams and partners, combined with solid relationships and proactive planning, will turn challenges into opportunities.
